New analysis reveals local weather change dangers to international meals commerce and meals safety

Climate change poses an enormous threat to each the worldwide commerce of agricultural commodities and meals safety, a brand new report reveals.

The report, by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), reveals for the primary time intimately which international locations are uncovered to transboundary local weather dangers (TCRs).

The findings, which included evaluation by the Stockholm Environment Institute at York, appeared on the transboundary local weather dangers of agricultural commerce, and recognized which international locations are vital sources of local weather threat for international commodity markets.

Six key agricultural commodities had been assessed: staple commodities (reminiscent of maize, rice and wheat), extremely embedded commodities (soy and sugar cane) and luxurious commodities (espresso). 

Sources of threat

The report’s findings counsel that every one international locations are uncovered to transboundary local weather dangers, no matter growth, energy, or wealth.

Countries in Europe and North America had been discovered to be extremely uncovered to TCRs by way of international imports, and may be main sources of threat for different international locations which depend upon their exports for food safety.  

The United States, China, and Brazil had been discovered to be vital sources of local weather threat, posing issues for international locations in Central and Latin America and the Caribbean (which depend upon US imports) and international locations in Asia and Africa that import meals from China.

Small Island Developing States and small, globally built-in international locations like Singapore and Sweden are additionally particularly susceptible. In distinction, as a big commodity exporter, Russia could improve agricultural manufacturing resulting from local weather change, together with of maize, soy, and rice, although doubtless not sufficient to offset dangers elsewhere.

Systemic resilience

Dr Simon Croft, from SEI York, stated: “Our modeling supplied the foundations upon which the assessments of transboundary local weather dangers on this report are performed.

“Given the complexity of global supply chains, especially for commodities such as palm oil, unpicking these trade linkages is essential for quantifying and mapping TCRs in detail.”

Overall, the report urges leaders on the UN Food Systems Summit and the upcoming COP26 local weather change negotiations to acknowledge the essential hyperlinks between local weather change, meals safety and commerce, and to take motion to construct systemic resilience to local weather impacts by way of multilateral cooperation.