New Risk Score Helps Predict Death Risk for Atrial Fibrillation Patients

New Risk Score Helps Predict Death Risk for Atrial Fibrillation Patients

“Our study focuses solely on high-risk TAVR patients with atrial fibrillation, which is a well-recognized surrogate of unfavorable prognosis,” says lead investigator George Dangas, MD, PhD, Professor of Medicine (Cardiology) and Director of Cardiovascular Innovation at The Zena and Michael A. Wiener Cardiovascular Institute on the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai. “Although past research has been mostly focused on procedure risks, this new risk assessment tool focuses on how to stratify patients after completion of successful TAVR when they are ready for discharge, to improve outcomes.”

Before sufferers bear TAVR—a minimally invasive process, an alternative choice to open coronary heart surgical procedure, to switch the aortic valve for sufferers with symptomatic aortic stenosis—physicians assess their danger of mortality following the process. This helps them higher clarify the dangers to the affected person, information decision-making earlier than and after the process, and select essentially the most applicable therapies. However, there is no such thing as a definitive danger rating for TAVR. Surgeons typically depend on the Society of Throacic Surgeons (STS) danger rating that was developed for open coronary heart surgical procedure, or different related danger scores for this process. This rating has limitations for TAVR as a result of it was derived from cohorts of sufferers present process surgical aortic valve alternative.

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Unsuccessful prior makes an attempt to create a danger rating for TAVR sufferers occurred practically a decade in the past when the process was new and catered to an older affected person inhabitants. This trial was based mostly on a brand new knowledge set in an up to date inhabitants; the chance rating applies for sufferers who underwent current TAVR within the final 5 years and who’ve AF.


Mount Sinai researchers led the worldwide ENVISAGE-TAVI trial throughout 173 facilities in 14 international locations to check the security and efficacy of various therapies in AF/TAVR sufferers who want oral anticoagulation. They analyzed 1,426 sufferers beginning 5 to 12 days after TAVR and adopted them as much as one 12 months to judge predictors of mortality. Of the 178 sufferers (12.5 %) who died inside that timeframe, most have been over age 64; had kidney illness and/or coronary heart failure; larger weight; had non-paroxysmal AF (a typical, persistent, and everlasting AF lasting for greater than every week); consumed greater than three alcoholic drinks per day; and had a historical past of main bleeding or predisposition to bleeding through the process.

Investigators assigned a danger stage to every of these predictors. Once they calculated total danger, they categorised sufferers into three classes: low danger (between 0-10), reasonable danger (between 11-15), and excessive danger (above 16). They validated the chance rating and located that the mortality price was greater than double within the moderate-risk sufferers (10.1 %) and triple within the high-risk group (17 %) in comparison with the low-risk group (4.8 %).

Source: Eurekalert

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